India and Poland: Leaders target doubling trade by 2030

India and Poland have set a target to double bilateral trade by 2030, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a joint statement on Tusk’s 21-23 October 2026 visit to India. The leaders linked the target to wider business partnerships, investment and cooperation in manufacturing, technology and energy.

Tusk’s delegation included around 100 leading chief executives and industry representatives, according to the joint statement published by India’s Prime Minister’s Office. Modi invited Polish companies to expand in India, while Tusk presented Poland as a gateway for Indian businesses seeking access to Central and Eastern Europe and the wider European market.

The statement does not specify the baseline year or trade value against which the doubling target will be measured. It also does not state whether the target covers goods alone or includes services, leaving the precise scale of the commitment undefined.

The trade relationship behind the target

The Embassy of India’s September 2026 Economic and Commercial Brief puts bilateral trade in 2025 at USD 6.36 billion, comprising Indian exports of USD 4.83 billion and imports of USD 1.53 billion. The embassy attributes these figures to Poland’s Central Statistical Office.

For January-June 2026, the same brief records trade of USD 3.205 billion, with Indian exports of USD 2.411 billion and imports of USD 0.794 billion. These are half-year figures, rather than a full-year measure against which to assess the new target.

The embassy describes Poland as India’s largest trading partner and export destination in Central Europe. It values Indian investment in Poland at more than USD 3 billion and Polish investment in India at around USD 635 million.

The existing commercial relationship spans industrial goods, clothing and energy products. India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, in its country profile on bilateral trade, lists iron and steel, electrical machinery and cotton ready-made garments, including accessories, as India’s leading exports to Poland in the financial year 2023-24. Coal, coke and briquettes, iron and steel, and electrical machinery led imports from Poland that year.

Those commodity rankings describe an earlier financial year, not the current trade mix. The directorate’s Indian trade series runs from April to March, whereas the embassy’s figures above cover calendar years and January-June 2026.

EU trade agreement still needs implementation

The leaders placed the India-European Union Free Trade Agreement at the centre of their economic agenda. Their joint statement welcomed the conclusion of the agreement but called for early signing, ratification and timely implementation. It therefore distinguishes completion of negotiations from the steps needed to bring the agreement into operation.

In his press statement, published by the Prime Minister’s Office, Modi said implementation would open opportunities for Indian exports of machinery, chemicals, plastics and engineering goods to Poland. He also identified railways and mobility, advanced manufacturing, food processing and biotechnology as areas for attracting Polish investment.

These were Modi’s expectations of the agreement’s benefits, rather than announcements of completed investments or export orders.

The joint statement said the leaders welcomed an India-Poland Business Forum held during the visit. They encouraged companies to pursue partnerships in industrial machinery, defence, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, mining and critical minerals, energy, and information and communication technology.

Agriculture has a separate institutional route: the leaders agreed to resume the bilateral working group’s activities to increase trade and cooperation, according to the statement.

From the 2024 partnership to business projects

The new target builds on the Strategic Partnership established during Modi’s visit to Poland in August 2024. The joint statement says that visit also produced the India-Poland Action Plan for 2024-2028, a programme for cooperation across priority sectors.

Modi and Tusk endorsed a mid-term review of that plan conducted in Warsaw in September 2026 by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. They called for the partnership to produce concrete, time-bound outcomes.

Economic discussions had already taken place through the India-Poland Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation. According to the embassy’s commercial brief, its seventh session was held in New Delhi on 14 July 2026 and covered trade, investment, digital technologies, mining, energy, food processing and other sectors.

The embassy said both sides agreed at that meeting to promote business engagement, technology exchanges, joint research and participation in trade fairs and business missions. The leaders’ latest statement adds the trade target while encouraging companies to turn those areas of cooperation into partnerships.

Start-ups, research and industrial cooperation

Modi said in his press statement that the two countries had agreed to establish an India-Poland start-up bridge and organise technology hackathons for young people. Hackathons are collaborative events in which participants develop and test technology ideas.

The joint statement separately commits the countries to collaborative research in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum technologies, alongside closer links between enterprises and research institutions. Neither statement sets out funding amounts or a launch timetable for the start-up bridge.

There is already an Indian technology business presence in Poland. The embassy’s September brief names Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and HCL among the Indian information technology companies operating there.

In defence manufacturing, the leaders proposed a Defence Industry Dialogue to identify commercially viable cooperation, according to the joint statement. Possible arrangements include jointly developing technology and jointly manufacturing products, where both sides agree. The statement does not identify signed production contracts arising from that proposal.

The leaders also highlighted battery recycling and rare earth mineral refining as areas for cooperation. These activities form part of the circular economy: recovering materials for further use rather than discarding them. A memorandum of understanding covering geology, mining and critical minerals remained under negotiation, the joint statement said.

Transport links remain an area for talks

The leaders connected commercial expansion with transport cooperation. Their joint statement encouraged cooperation between ports to diversify supply chains and shorten transit times, and noted the importance of connectivity through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative.

For air travel, the statement welcomed the possibility of increasing direct flights between India and Poland and encouraged their civil aviation authorities to hold talks. It did not announce new routes, additional flight frequencies or a start date.